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Customer Health · M.03

Churn signals before they signal.

Asset performance, support volume, usage curves, contract terms, executive sentiment — fused into a health score that predicts churn 90+ days out, not 30.

health.scan · 4,820 customers 38 AT-RISK · 90d WINDOW
Customer health · all geographies
$14.4M · ARR at risk · explainable
Operator G · health 28
usage −34% · 2 P1s open · CFO churn
$1.8M
Operator A · health 54
renewal 87d · low NPS · drift
$840K
Reach · health 71
declining QoQ usage
$420K
Operator D · health 92
expansion candidate
EXP
Live · the health gauges usage · sentiment · payment · adoption · needles updating live
USAGE 8.4 / 10 SENTIMENT +0.6 PAYMENT ON TIME ADOPTION 72%
▸ Vault deposit
What this guardrail produces
▸ 12 mo in vault → first tier unlocked
▸ Evidence
Churn risk · account LTV · sentiment-payment correlation
▸ Tier unlocked
Tier 1 · banksTier 2 · infra debt
Guardrail rule: health score recomputed daily, history retained — see /the-vault for the full underwriting fabric.
What it looks like

Score. Detect. Expand.

5-dim composite health. Drift detection 90 days early. Expansion plays auto-drafted from the same model.

§ 01 · Health radar

5 signals · one score

Operator G · health 92.1
USE ASSET SENT STAKE RENEW
§ 02 · Cadence drift

−38% usage · 30 days

DP-02 · drift detected day 14
§ 03 · Action queue

Rescue + expand · today

Same model, two plays
DP-02 · $180KRESCUE
DP-01 · $120KWATCH
Operator G · $240KEXPAND
The problem

You learn about churn at renewal.

Health scores in CSPs lag 30-60 days. By the time the score turns red, the customer's already in market for a replacement. Health needs to fire 90+ days early to be useful.

Without Customer Health

Today's status quo

  • CSP health = product usage + ticket volume — lags real risk by 60 days
  • Asset performance, billing, exec sentiment not in the score
  • All-red customers get the same playbook — no situational intelligence
  • CSMs allocated by ARR band, not by actual risk concentration
With Customer Health

What changes

  • Health = 28 signals across asset, usage, billing, support, exec — fused live
  • Risk surfaces 90+ days out — when there's still time to act
  • Each red customer comes with the situation-specific playbook
  • CSM capacity allocated to real risk, not arbitrary ARR tiers
Capabilities

What's inside.

The six capabilities that make this module work end-to-end. Pick any one as your starting point — they compound.

01

28-signal fusion

Asset uptime, usage trends, support volume, NPS, billing disputes, exec departures, public news. All fused into one score with provenance.

Fusion · Provenance
02

Causal explainability

Every score change explains itself: which signals moved, which baselines they're scored against, what changed when. Not a black-box number.

Explainable · Causal
03

Playbook routing

Each risk pattern maps to a proven playbook — exec sponsor, technical deep-dive, contract restructure, hardware refresh. The right motion, not just an alert.

Playbooks · Routing
04

Capacity allocation

CSM, AE, exec sponsor capacity allocated to risk-weighted ARR — not ARR-band staffing.

Capacity · Risk-weighted
05

Expansion detection

Same model finds expansion candidates: green health + usage growth + new hires + recent renewal = ripe.

Expansion · Green
06

Cohort drift

When a cohort's health drifts in aggregate — a region, a vertical, a product line — surface it. Systemic risk caught early.

Cohort · Systemic
The autonomous loop

From signals to action.

28 signals flow in continuously, fuse into a per-customer score, surface playbooks, route capacity. CSMs spend their day on real risk — not on ARR-tier email cadences.

§ 01 · Ingest

28 signals

Asset, usage, support, billing, NPS, exec, public news — refreshed continuously.

Continuous
§ 02 · Fuse

Per-customer score

Causal model with per-account baselines. Each component scored separately and combined.

< 5min
§ 03 · Explain

Why the score moved

Top contributors surfaced. Drift vs cohort vs prior period. CSMs see the why immediately.

Realtime
§ 04 · Route

Playbook + owner

Pattern matched to playbook. Exec sponsor assigned by ARR + risk pattern. Tasks fire.

< 30s
Policy you can read

Health weights tuned to your business.

Different businesses fail differently. Hardware-heavy customers signal churn through asset performance. SaaS-heavy through usage decay. Health weights tune to your actual churn drivers — calibrated against your historical churn cohort.

Re-calibrated quarterly as your business evolves. The model that called Q1 churns isn't the right one for Q3.

policy · health-weights.alm
# Health Weights · calibrated against 38 churn events
health "customer-base":

  # asset signals
  asset.uptime_30d        weight 0.18
  asset.anomalies_30d     weight 0.12

  # usage signals
  usage.trend_qoq         weight 0.14
  usage.feature_breadth   weight 0.06

  # support signals
  support.p1_count        weight 0.10
  support.escalations     weight 0.08

  # billing
  billing.dispute_rate    weight 0.07

  # NPS
  nps.detractor_count     weight 0.09

  # exec sentiment
  exec.departure_signal   weight 0.16

  thresholds:
    red    < 50      # exec playbook
    yellow < 70      # csm playbook
    green  >= 85     # expansion
Where it lives

Reads from everywhere. Routes to the right tool.

CSP

Coexists with

Gainsight, Catalyst, ChurnZero — Health enriches your CSP, doesn't replace it.

Support

Ticket signals

Zendesk, Salesforce Service, Intercom — volume, escalation, resolution time.

Product

Usage signals

Mixpanel, Amplitude, Pendo — feature breadth, login decay, depth.

Sales

Renewal routing

Salesforce, HubSpot — renewal opps tagged with health and recommended motion.

Real outcomes

"We had a $1.8M renewal we thought was safe. Health flagged exec churn we'd missed. Got our CRO on a flight in 48 hours. Saved the renewal."

VP Customer Success · Confidential design partner · pallet manufacturing
90dLead time on churn
+18ppNet retention
28Signals fused
Operator D · CSM team $340M ARR · 4,820 customers
See it on your data

Score your top 100 accounts.

We'll connect Health to your stack and surface the customers who are signaling churn 90+ days out — before your CSP shows red.